empty
21.03.2025 10:21 AM
Federal Reserve throws lifebuoy to stock market

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the 24-hour chart for #SPX is fairly clear. The first and most important point is the large-scale five-wave structure, which is so wide that it barely fits in the platform screen even at the smallest scale. In simpler terms, US stock indices have been in a long-term uptrend. But as we know, trends eventually reverse.

At this point, wave 5 of 5 appears to be complete, with the instrument making four failed attempts to break above 6,093, which corresponds to a 200.0% Fibonacci extension from wave 4. In my view, a corrective wave sequence is now unfolding. The US stock market is overheated, and more experts are warning of a "bubble."

On the 4-hour chart, we see a completed complex corrective structure a-b-c-d-e, followed by an upward a-b-c pattern. This suggests that a new downward structure is now in progress, and its first wave closely resembles an impulse.

Hence, I expect an upward wave 2 or b, after which the decline is likely to resume. My current outlook is based on the daily wave count, which implies a prolonged downward movement for the S&P 500.

The Federal Reserve calms market panic, but risks remain

As I previously warned, #SPX has started forming corrective wave b, which could lift the index as high as 5,825—50.0% Fibonacci retracement of wave a. This suggests that while the US stock market may rise in the short term, it will likely be a corrective bounce before the next leg down. Of course, wave structures can evolve in many ways—the retracement could just as easily be 38.2% or even 76.4%, but we do have a baseline scenario for now.

At this week's FOMC meeting, it became clear that only the markets are panicking about Trump's tariffs—not the Federal Reserve. The Fed didn't see any significant negative changes in the economy. The regulator expects inflation to accelerate and GDP growth to lose momentum. Hence, monetary policy will likely be eased slowly, just as previously expected.

However, let me remind you that the market has already priced in the Fed's dovish stance. What matters now is the real state of the US economy and its outlook, which remains cautiously negative. Still, the Fed managed to calm the markets somewhat, though we can't ignore the obvious— the US economy is slowing down. Probably not as fast as markets fear, but slowing nonetheless. Therefore, my wave scenario remains valid.

This image is no longer relevant

Final thoughts

Based on the current wave analysis of #SPX, I conclude that the instrument has completed its upward trend phase. In the current environment, I recommend watching 6,125 and Trump's economic policies. His actions—trade wars, tariffs, and import restrictions—pose risks to the stability of the US economy and corporate earnings, making a new downtrend increasingly likely.

The "bubble" in US stock markets appears fully inflated. The 4-hour chart allows for one more upward wave, followed by a bearish move. The 24-hour chart confirms the start of a larger downtrend. On the higher timeframe, the wave picture is even clearer: a clean five-wave structure, with another five-wave pattern inside the fifth wave—a classic indicator that we may be nearing the end. This all points to a lengthy and complex correction, which may have already begun.

Key principles of my analysis:

  • Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change.
  • If you are uncertain about the market trend, it's better to stay out.
  • There is no 100% certainty in price direction. Always use Stop Loss orders to protect your positions.
  • Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies for a more comprehensive approach.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Mercado bursátil el 4 de mayo: SP500 y NASDAQ mostraron un crecimiento diario bastante fuerte

Según los resultados de la última sesión regular, los índices bursátiles estadounidenses cerraron al alza. El S&P 500 subió un 0,58 %, mientras que el Nasdaq 100 ganó un 0,81

Jakub Novak 08:50 2025-06-04 UTC+2

¿Está cerca el colapso del mercado bursátil de EE. UU.?

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 24 horas para el instrumento #SPX se ve en general claro. La estructura global de cinco ondas ni siquiera cabe

Chin Zhao 07:42 2025-06-04 UTC+2

Mercado bursátil el 2 de mayo: se intensifica la presión sobre el S&P 500 y el Nasdaq

Al final de la última sesión regular, los índices bursátiles estadounidenses cerraron de forma mixta. El S&P 500 cayó un 0,01% y el Nasdaq 100 perdió un 0,32%

Jakub Novak 09:00 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Mercado bursátil el 30 de mayo: el SP500 y el NASDAQ volvieron a caer

Al final de la última sesión regular, los índices bursátiles estadounidenses cerraron con un ligero crecimiento. El S&P 500 subió un 0,40% y el Nasdaq 100 aumentó un 0,39%

Jakub Novak 12:58 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Mercado bursátil el 29 de mayo: los índices SP500 y NASDAQ frenan su crecimiento

Al cierre de la última sesión regular, los índices bursátiles estadounidenses registraron una ligera caída. El S&P 500 descendió un 0,56%, y el Nasdaq 100 bajó un 0,71%

Jakub Novak 11:00 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Mercado bursátil el 28 de mayo: los índices SP500 y NASDAQ continúan su rápido crecimiento

Al cierre de la última sesión regular, los índices bursátiles estadounidenses terminaron con un fuerte crecimiento. El S&P 500 subió un 2,00%, mientras que el Nasdaq 100 ganó un 2,47%

Jakub Novak 12:58 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Mercado bursátil el 26 de mayo: los índices S&P 500 y NASDAQ regresan al crecimiento

Al cierre de la última sesión regular, los índices bursátiles estadounidenses terminaron a la baja. El S&P 500 cayó un 0,67%, mientras que el Nasdaq 100 perdió un 1,00%

Jakub Novak 11:08 2025-05-26 UTC+2

Los inversores viven un drama llamado "déficit federal"

Wall Street tambalea, pero no cae. Los índices retrocedieron debido a las preocupaciones por los riesgos presupuestarios de EE. UU., aunque el premercado muestra una relativa estabilidad. La atención

Anna Zotova 14:04 2025-05-22 UTC+2

La Fed, Moody's y Trump – no son un problema para la renta variable

El análisis de ondas del gráfico de 24 horas para el instrumento #SPX resulta en general comprensible. La estructura global de cinco ondas ni siquiera cabe en la ventana

Chin Zhao 07:36 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Moody

Los rumores en torno a la calificación de EE. UU. es solo el telón de fondo. NVIDIA es el verdadero argumento. Veamos el panorama actual en el mercado bursátil estadounidense

Anna Zotova 12:41 2025-05-19 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.