empty
14.04.2025 03:37 AM
EUR/USD Overview. April 14: The Dollar—From Leader to Laggard

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady rally on Friday. At this point, there are no more questions about what is happening in the currency market—it's as simple as it gets. Donald Trump keeps raising the stakes, attempting to force (there's no better word) every country trading with the U.S. to do so strictly on American terms. Naturally, not everyone is thrilled with this turn of events, and the much-talked-about line of eager trade delegations to the White House has yet to appear.

Speaking of Trump, he has never been shy with words—and this time is no different. According to the sitting U.S. President, all countries are ready to "lick (censored)" to get a trade deal with the U.S. It's worth noting that these are official statements by the President of the United States. In our view, this borders on surrealism and absurdity. Trump continues to insult, humiliate, and issue ultimatums while waging trade wars under the guise of being a peacemaker.

The results of his actions are nothing short of comical. Trump wants to bring back jobs and factories to the U.S., grow the economy, reduce the trade deficit, and cut national debt. Currently, the outcomes are the exact opposite. Investors and traders are fleeing American assets, and many notable figures are leaving the U.S. The economy is beginning to slow, and now even the most conservative analysts are forecasting a recession. Inflation is declining for now, but no one doubts it will accelerate significantly soon. Jobs aren't rushing back to the U.S., and factories aren't planning large-scale relocations. On the contrary, companies are seeking ways to avoid Trump's tariffs—but we haven't heard of any major firm moving production back to the U.S.

As for the national debt—thanks to Trump's policies, it's only likely to increase. Remember that government bonds are traditionally considered a stable and safe investment tool. U.S. Treasuries are now being sold off. As a result, bond yields are rising—and yield is effectively the cost of borrowing. In other words, the U.S. government is now forced to borrow at higher rates. We're talking about billions of dollars at increased interest rates.

So we—and many experts—are left wondering: was it worth it? Perhaps there are brilliant economists in the Trump administration capable of modeling not only cash flows but also the reactions of half the world's countries to this kind of policy. But for now, the results are deeply disappointing. Some experts even believe the bond market may end up restraining Trump. In short, the more the bond market declines, the more the U.S. will pay in interest. This trend has started to worry Trump, which is likely why we're beginning to hear talk of "tariff amnesties."

In closing, we'd like to remind readers that Trump could declare victory, claim that America got what it wanted, and cancel most tariffs at any moment.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days stands at 195 pips, which is considered "high." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1168 and 1.1558 on Monday. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, indicating a short-term bullish trend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory for the second time, signaling the potential for a correction. A bearish divergence may also form. However, since Trump hasn't backed down, the dollar may continue to decline.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish trend. For several months, we've repeatedly stated that we expect only a medium-term decline in the euro, and that outlook has not changed. Aside from Donald Trump, there is still no fundamental reason for a medium-term decline in the dollar. Yet this single reason continues to drag the dollar into an abyss. Moreover, it is increasingly unclear what the long-term economic consequences of his policies will be. When Trump calms down, the U.S. economy may be in such poor shape that a dollar recovery becomes impossible.

If you're trading based on pure technicals or following "the Trump factor," long positions can be considered when the price is above the moving average, with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1558.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Overview – June 12: Protests Against Trump and Fed Policy

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Wednesday. Naturally, when U.S. inflation data was released, we saw a brief burst of market reaction—though it didn't last long

Paolo Greco 04:07 2025-06-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 12: Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly throughout Wednesday. The market showed no reaction whatsoever to the seemingly positive news regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Why? Because that positivity

Paolo Greco 04:07 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Donald Trump Plans to Suppress the Uprising

For several consecutive days, protests and unrest have continued in some major U.S. cities, sparked by Donald Trump's new immigration policy. This time, the U.S. President has decided to deport

Chin Zhao 00:35 2025-06-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD. In the Shadow of the Trade Deal: U.S. Inflation Report Pressures the Greenback

A mixed U.S. inflation report pressured the greenback. The dollar index returned to 98.00, while the EUR/USD pair refreshed its weekly high, rising to 1.1491. Additional pressure on the U.S

Irina Manzenko 00:35 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Will the Dollar Maintain the Status Quo?

To make accurate predictions about the future, one must examine the past. The more than 10% rally in EUR/USD since the beginning of the year has been driven by four

Marek Petkovich 00:35 2025-06-12 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Currently, the price of gold remains confined within a weekly range. The key factors supporting price growth include a decision by the U.S. federal appellate court to uphold President Donald

Irina Yanina 18:35 2025-06-11 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

At this stage, the Japanese yen continues to trade within an intraday consolidation range, approaching the two-week low against the U.S. dollar reached yesterday. The main factors influencing the movement

Irina Yanina 18:33 2025-06-11 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

However, at this point, it lacks follow-through buying, despite a fundamental backdrop that suggests the path of least resistance for spot prices lies to the upside. The weak performance

Irina Yanina 11:38 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Results of the Second Round of U.S.–China Negotiations

The United States and China have concluded two days of important trade negotiations with a plan to resume the flow of sensitive goods — this framework now awaits approval from

Jakub Novak 11:32 2025-06-11 UTC+2

The U.S. and China: A Small Step Forward. What's Next? (Potential for a reversal and decline in EUR/USD and NZD/USD pairs)

Representatives from the United States and China have reached a framework agreement on trade following two days of high-level talks in London. But why isn't there a sense of euphoria

Pati Gani 09:52 2025-06-11 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.