empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
02.05.2025 10:03 AM
The ECB Has No Other Choice
Open trading account Open demo account

The European currency continues to lose ground against the U.S. dollar as traders increasingly place bets on the European Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy decisions.

According to data, the chances of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in September have risen significantly. This has been driven by several factors, including a slowdown in eurozone inflation and signs of weakening economic growth.

This image is no longer relevant

Recent statistical data indicates that inflation is gradually approaching the ECB's 2% target, which allows the regulator to consider easing monetary policy. At the same time, economic indicators such as the PMI business activity index and retail sales signal a decline in growth rates, which could negatively impact employment and investment.

Today, new eurozone inflation data will be released, which could further increase the likelihood of another rate cut, as overall inflation is expected to fall to 2.1% in April from 2.2% in March. For reference, inflation stood at 2.5% back in January. Additionally, weak reports on manufacturing PMIs across the eurozone will be published today, reinforcing confidence in the ECB's course of action.

Given these circumstances, many traders believe that the ECB may decide to lower its key interest rate at the next meeting. Such a move could stimulate economic activity by reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. However, one must also consider the risks of a potential rebound in inflation due to recently introduced U.S. tariffs, which could require the ECB to take a more cautious approach to monetary policy.

Overall, the situation remains dynamic and requires close monitoring by both the regulator and market participants. The ECB's decision will carry significant implications for the eurozone economy.

Clearly, expectations of lower borrowing costs from the ECB have grown over the past month, as U.S. tariffs have eased concerns about the early stages of the region's economic recovery. Eurozone business activity surveys point to weaker performance, and the unexpectedly strong euro reinforces the view that inflation will continue to decline. Some traders are betting that policymakers will cut rates by as much as 75 basis points to 1.5% over the next four months.

Money markets are currently pricing in 67 basis points of additional ECB rate cuts this year, implying that two quarter-point cuts are fully priced in, with a 68% chance of a third. This would bring the key rate down to 1.5%, compared to expectations just a month ago that it would only fall to 2%.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

At the moment, buyers need to focus on breaking through the 1.1337 level. Only this would open the path toward testing 1.1386. From there, the pair could target 1.1437, though reaching that level without strong support from major market players will be difficult. The furthest target remains the 1.1487 high. If the instrument declines, I expect meaningful buying activity only near the 1.1265 level. If no buyers appear there, it would be wise to wait for a new low around 1.1215 or consider entering long positions from the 1.1185 level.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

Pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3315. Only this will allow them to target 1.3354, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The final target would be the 1.3394 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of the 1.3280 level. If they succeed, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3250 low, with potential continuation toward 1.3205.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on June 3, 2025 The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed into an upward structure and remains such. I believe there's no doubt that this transformation occurred exclusively
Chin Zhao
19:38 2025-06-03 +02:00
1300
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on June 3, 2025 The wave structure for GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of the EUR/USD pair. Until February
Chin Zhao
19:32 2025-06-03 +02:00
1105
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The dollar cannot find a reason to strengthen

The CFTC report showed that expectations for a reversal in the dollar have not materialized. After three weeks of relative stability, during which the total short position
Kuvat Raharjo 19:16 2025-06-03 UTC+2

The Pound Rises Against All Odds

The manufacturing PMI in May came in above expectations, but that was where all the positivity ended — 46.6 points, still below the expansion zone, and there's no talk
Kuvat Raharjo 19:09 2025-06-03 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is showing mixed dynamics: despite the general recovery of the US dollar, the Japanese yen is under pressure from intraday sellers amid a combination of negative factors
Irina Yanina 18:27 2025-06-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair is attracting sellers today, pulling back from yesterday's high. This pullback is associated with a moderate strengthening of the US dollar, which is exerting pressure
Irina Yanina 18:24 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Traders Didn't Believe the Japanese Regulator

The Japanese yen lost some ground against the US dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted today that the central bank may continue to slow the pace
Jakub Novak 11:16 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Market startles monster

Over time, we get used to everything — the good and the bad. Investors have finally come to terms with the fact that they will have to build businesses under
Marek Petkovich 10:44 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Deteriorating U.S. Economic Conditions Bring Fed Rate Cuts Closer (Potential for Continued Decline in #USDX and EUR/JPY Pair)

Although the market has largely stopped reacting to incoming economic data—especially from the U.S.—and is more focused on the geopolitical and economic moves of Donald Trump, who is steering
Pati Gani 09:52 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Everything Is Still Working Against the U.S. Dollar

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to secure more trade agreements, the U.S. dollar continues to decline sharply against several other assets as negotiations with China and Europe falter
Jakub Novak 09:09 2025-06-03 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 3? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are only two macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. Although the first report looks significant on its own and the second one is directly related to the U.S. labor market
Paolo Greco 06:53 2025-06-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 3: Trump Deals Another Slap to the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair surged upward again on Monday. Just as the British pound had started a correction and even consolidated below the moving average line, Trump once again announced
Paolo Greco 04:38 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 03:00 2025-06-04 UTC--4
EUR/USD. June 3rd. Waiting for EU Inflation Data
11:06 2025-06-03
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-06-04 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 3. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:50 2025-06-03
Forecast
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-06-03 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 3: Trump and ISM Hammer the Dollar
03:57 2025-06-03
Trading plan
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-06-04 UTC--4
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 3
07:48 2025-06-03
Forecast
Relevance up to 23:00 2025-06-03 UTC--4
Forecast for GBP/USD on June 3, 2025
05:17 2025-06-03
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.